FGV EPGE – Brazilian School of Economics and Finance welcomed, on May 7th Dr. José Carlos Carvalho, macroenomic expert with Paineiras Investimentos, to a lecture on “Economists in the Age of Bubbles: Recent Evidences”.
The chosen theme was “Macroeconomic Scenario: Bubbles & Markets”, and the lecturer cited such examples as the tulipomania, which took place in the 17th century in the Netherlands and is considered the first recorded speculative bubble in the world; the 2008 crisis involving housing speculation in the United State; the global GDP slowing trend; quantitative monetary expansion; contractional tax policies; and basic interest rates of world’s biggest central banks, among others. The strategy of buybacks used by some companies in order to increase their stock, as recently done by Apple, was also mentioned during the presentation.
Mr. Carvalho emphasized that the global slowing depresses the demand for Brazilian exports. “The efforts to increase the exports demand via exchange and energy policies, payroll tax exemptions etc have proved of little efficacy”. Finally, José Carlos Carvalho called attention to “fast speed growth of credit obtained mainly from public banks and the consequent growth of insolvency”.
José Carlos Carvalho holds a PhD degree in Economics from the University of Yale and has been Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis area at Paineiras since October 2009. He was an economist with Banco Pactual from 1995 to 1998, when he became founding partner and economist at JGP, where he stayed until 2007. From 2007 to 2009, he was investments strategist with Sagitta.
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