09h00 - 09h30


Carlos Ivan Simonsen Leal (President - Getulio Vargas Foundation)
Murilo Ferreira (CEO - Vale) // Luciano Ciani Pires (CFO - Vale)
Rubens Penha Cysne (Dean - FGV EPGE)
Roberto Castello Branco (Director - Vale)

09h30 - 10h45

Rubens Penha Cysne (Dean - FGV EPGE)

Nobel Lecture I
Edward C. Prescott (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and Arizona State University)
How to Restore US Prosperity - Video

10h45 - 11h15


11h15 - 13h15

Chairman: Clovis de Faro (FGV EPGE)

Bruce Kasman (JP Morgan)
The Global Economic Outlook - Video

Marco Terrones (IMF)
Global Recessions and Global Recoveries - Video

13h15 - 14h30


14h30 - 16h30

Chairman: Ricardo Cavalcanti (Director of Research - FGV EPGE)

Marco Bonomo (FGV EPGE) and Tiago Berriel (FGV EPGE)
Aggregate Uncertainty, Disappointment Aversion and the Business Cycles - Video

Frank Schorfheide (University of Pennsylvania)
A New Class of Nonlinear Time Series Models for the Evaluation of DSGE Models - Video

16h30 - 17h30


17h00 - 19h00

Chairman: Carlos Eugênio da Costa (FGV EPGE)

João Victor Issler (FGV EPGE) and Claudia Rodrigues (Vale)
Metal Commodity Prices and Global Business Cycles - Video

Martin Eichenbaum (Northwestern University)
Valuation Risk and Asset Pricing - Video

09h10 - 10h15

Aloisio Araujo (Deputy Dean - FGV EPGE)

Nobel Lecture II
Chris Sims (Princeton University)
Using Financial Data in Macroeconomic Model - Video

10h15 - 10h45


10h45 - 12h45

Chairman: Fernando de Holanda Barbosa (FGV EPGE)

Eswar S. Prasad (Cornell University)
International Spillovers: Real and Financial Channels - Video

Marcelle Chauvet (U.C. Riverside)
Microfoundations of Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve - Video

12h45 - 14h00


14h00 - 16h00

Chairman: Luis Braido (FGV EPGE)

Ataman Ozyildirim (TCB)
On Business Cycle Indicators for Emerging Economies: Applications to China, India, and Brazil - Video

Gary Hansen (UCLA)
Fiscal Reform and Government Debt in Japan: A Neoclassical Perspective - Video

16h00 - 16h30


16h30 - 18h30

Chairman: Marcelo Moreira (FGV EPGE)

Mark W. Watson (Princeton University)
Inference in Structural VARs with External Instruments - Video

Domenico Giannone (Université Libre de Bruxelles)
Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow - Video